Ok I'm back
Alright guys, sorry for the blog hiatus over the last 2 weeks... I've been pretty busy and haven't had much time to sit down and write. Anyways I'm back from Montreal and ready to get back to business.
I'll quickly start off with poker, the Thursday before I left I had my biggest losing day of the year, actually one of my biggest losing days ever. It was pretty gross. I'm not going to get into specifics because I'm pretty disappointed in myself and want to look past that day. But in a nut shell it was a mix of running bad, playing poorly, tilting (yes this is the first time I've officially tilted in a while) and didn't quit when I should have. I also was playing some 5/10 chasing a fish who ended up grabbing me a few times. All and all it was a very shitty day, but not much I can do now but to continue to learn from my mistakes and move forward.
Ok enough with that, I'll give you guys a quick run down of Montreal. Me and eskal flew down on Friday and met up with my little brother Adam and a couple of his buddies. We went to the Q&A with GSP and also stayed for the weighins which was a pretty good time. We were also staying in the same hotel as all the UFC fighters, so any time you walked through the lobby you would see them just chillin.
On Saturday night was the actual event, we had good seats and the place was packed. The only problem with going to a UFC event is that no matter where you are sitting, its kinda tough seeing the fight in the octagon. You end up looking at the jumbo tron because you don't want to miss anything. Other than that its a cool experience to be there and the atmosphere is nuts. If you watched the event that night you probably don't need me to tell you what happened in the main event, but if you didn't catch it... it basically sucked. Anderson Silva was defending his belt and it was pretty much a 5 round snoozer. He didn't attack much, and when he did his opponent just flopped to his back.
While watching the fight though it got me thinking about the comparisons of fighting and poker. In my every day life I find myself making decision by determining its EV, always looking for a +EV edge. In the Anderson Silva fight he pretty much fought a fight he couldn't lose. He never put himself in a position to not get submitted or knocked out. He fought an extremely SAFE fight. Which is unlike him and people were pissed because it was boring, but for him he probably determined that was the most +EV way to win the match. If he fought that same opponent 100 times that exact same way, I could see him winning 95-98% of the time. If he fought differently and attacked relentlessly (like he usually does) he probably still wins a high percentage of the time, I'd guess around 85-90%. But loses some EV from any fluke situation that can happen in a fight. Now by saying that, you have to look at the entire situation as a whole and not just the fight. In the UFC business, winning just isn't enough. You are expected to put on an entertaining fight for the fans and will also receive cash bonuses for a submission or knock-out. If a fighter in the UFC wins a bunch of boring decisions, you can bet his stock will go down and won't be looked at as an asset to the company. Now Anderson Silva is one of the most popular and exciting fighters in the world, but with this new approach he uses in the ring is definitely decreasing his EV. Although he probably wins 95-98% of the time fighting that way, I believe its probably neutral EV in the long run if he continues that. He will lose fans, lose money and possibly damage his legacy.
Not sure if that made any sense, just trying to make the point that every decision I make I look at the long term effects instead of the short term.
This week I'm trying to get back to my normal schedule. My body feels horrible from a very unhealthy weekend, ate a bunch of junk and drank quite a bit. So I need to catch up on my sleep and eat clean this week and also hit the tables as much as I can. I want to close off April in a positive note and hopefully re-cooperate my losses from my disaster last Thursday.
Jay
I'll quickly start off with poker, the Thursday before I left I had my biggest losing day of the year, actually one of my biggest losing days ever. It was pretty gross. I'm not going to get into specifics because I'm pretty disappointed in myself and want to look past that day. But in a nut shell it was a mix of running bad, playing poorly, tilting (yes this is the first time I've officially tilted in a while) and didn't quit when I should have. I also was playing some 5/10 chasing a fish who ended up grabbing me a few times. All and all it was a very shitty day, but not much I can do now but to continue to learn from my mistakes and move forward.
Ok enough with that, I'll give you guys a quick run down of Montreal. Me and eskal flew down on Friday and met up with my little brother Adam and a couple of his buddies. We went to the Q&A with GSP and also stayed for the weighins which was a pretty good time. We were also staying in the same hotel as all the UFC fighters, so any time you walked through the lobby you would see them just chillin.
On Saturday night was the actual event, we had good seats and the place was packed. The only problem with going to a UFC event is that no matter where you are sitting, its kinda tough seeing the fight in the octagon. You end up looking at the jumbo tron because you don't want to miss anything. Other than that its a cool experience to be there and the atmosphere is nuts. If you watched the event that night you probably don't need me to tell you what happened in the main event, but if you didn't catch it... it basically sucked. Anderson Silva was defending his belt and it was pretty much a 5 round snoozer. He didn't attack much, and when he did his opponent just flopped to his back.
While watching the fight though it got me thinking about the comparisons of fighting and poker. In my every day life I find myself making decision by determining its EV, always looking for a +EV edge. In the Anderson Silva fight he pretty much fought a fight he couldn't lose. He never put himself in a position to not get submitted or knocked out. He fought an extremely SAFE fight. Which is unlike him and people were pissed because it was boring, but for him he probably determined that was the most +EV way to win the match. If he fought that same opponent 100 times that exact same way, I could see him winning 95-98% of the time. If he fought differently and attacked relentlessly (like he usually does) he probably still wins a high percentage of the time, I'd guess around 85-90%. But loses some EV from any fluke situation that can happen in a fight. Now by saying that, you have to look at the entire situation as a whole and not just the fight. In the UFC business, winning just isn't enough. You are expected to put on an entertaining fight for the fans and will also receive cash bonuses for a submission or knock-out. If a fighter in the UFC wins a bunch of boring decisions, you can bet his stock will go down and won't be looked at as an asset to the company. Now Anderson Silva is one of the most popular and exciting fighters in the world, but with this new approach he uses in the ring is definitely decreasing his EV. Although he probably wins 95-98% of the time fighting that way, I believe its probably neutral EV in the long run if he continues that. He will lose fans, lose money and possibly damage his legacy.
Not sure if that made any sense, just trying to make the point that every decision I make I look at the long term effects instead of the short term.
This week I'm trying to get back to my normal schedule. My body feels horrible from a very unhealthy weekend, ate a bunch of junk and drank quite a bit. So I need to catch up on my sleep and eat clean this week and also hit the tables as much as I can. I want to close off April in a positive note and hopefully re-cooperate my losses from my disaster last Thursday.
Jay
I agree it was a snoozer, 25 mins of my life I'll never get back. But it is a tough decision when your opponent just flops on his back anytime it looks like the battle is going to the ground. Silva has the belt. I wouldn't expect him to jump into a situation that could result in a submission or who-knows-what - especially since it seems he was a little hesitant to take it to the ground. They should have taken the belt off the table, after the 3rd round, and seen what the fight would have been like on the ground. I am sure if this wasn't a title fight, Silva would have been on the ground all the time. Losing some fans and having people talk about it for a while is one thing, losing the belt is another. I don't blame Silva for doing what he did. At least he apologized during his interview with Joe Rogan and I bet his next fight will be back to his "normal self".
I was at UFC 94 and I agree with your comment about not being able to see very well. That is also why I opted to only spend $200 for seats up. The cage wasn't in the way, as long as they stayed towards the far side, but it was really far away, so we were looking at the screens all the time when the fights were on the ground. lol
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Yeah I pretty much agree with all you said.. I blame Joe Silva for not matching him up with someone who will fight...I guarantee his next fight will be fire works though.
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